How To Start Trading The Forex Market? The Analysis (Part 8)

HOW TO predict the Future ? 

by studying the Past (Technical Analysis):

1) The best traders don't discount one or the other but understand that having an understanding how the fundamentals influence market sentiment gives him/her an edge over those traders who don't.

2) In my opinion, TECHNICAL analysis is the easiest and most accurate way of trading the FOREX market.

3) "The number's don't lie" - all available information and its impact on the market, are already reflected in a currency's price.

4) Prices move in trends - the foreign exchange market is mostly composed of trends and therefore a place where technical analysis can be very effective.

5) History repeats itself - over time, certain chart patterns become consistent, predictable and very reliable. The question is SEEING them.

PRICES MOVE IN TRENDS

The traders who don't believe this obviously have no need to implement a trading methodology on technical analysis. But, research has shown that those who trade "with the trend", greatly improve their changes of making a profitable trade.

Finding the prevailing trend will help you become aware of the overall market direction and offer you better visibility,especially when shorter-term movements tend to clutter the picture.

HOW does technical analysis help to determine what the trend is and HOW to trade with then trend versus against it?

Even though, you learn you how to use and read various technical indicators to identify a long- term trend, spot predictable chart patters and use certain rules to enter and exit a high-probability trade, and even though a ll this involves sound logic, parameters, methods, formulas, data, and research, these technical indicators, by themselves, are not the Holy Grail of FOREX trading.

It takes discipline and emotional control to stick with trading following through the inevitable market ups and downs. Keep in mind, good technical traders expect ups and downs.

Which technical indicators are the BEST?

NONE - technical indicators should simply be components of your overall customized, personalized trading system, and not a stand alone system.

The objectives as a FOREX Technical Trader are:

1) To figure out the price action of the currency pair. Price is the main concern. If the EUR/USD is at 1.2224 and goes to 1.2020, 1.1980, 1.1940- the market is in a down trend.

Despite what every technical indicator might predict, if the trend is down, stay with the trend. Indicators showing where price will go next or what it should be doing are useless.

A trader should only be concerned with what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The price tells you what the market is doing.

2) Always remember that technical indicators are only giving you confirmations based on what the market is telling you. So listen to the market and let it tell you which method, strategy or techniques you should use.

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How To Start Trading The Forex Market ? (Part 4 )

How Currencies are quoted and what moves individual currencies?

ONE of the best advantages in FOREX Trading is 

The amount of money you need to place a trade (known as "margin") is all that can be lost !

You have to know, that despite the super-high leverage offered by some Forex brokers up to (400:1); meaning if you put up $ 1000 the broker will allow you to trade like you really have $400.000).

Forex trading is still less riskier than Stock or Futures Trading, where you can loose more than you have deposited in your account.

This type of LEVERAGE does NOT EXIST in the equities or futures market

In the Equities or Futures markets, very often, sudden and dramatic moves occur, against which you can’t protect yourself, even by having placed your protective stops.

Your position may be liquidated at a loss, and you’ll be liable for any resulting deficit in the account.

But because of the FX market’s deep liquidity and 24-hour, continuous trading, dangerous trading gaps and limit moves are almost eliminated.

Orders are executed quickly, without slippage or partial fills. And finally, there are no margin calls. For your protection, the broker will automatically close out some or all of your open positions if your account equity falls below the level required to hold the positions.

Think of this as a final, automatic stop, always working on your behalf to prevent a debit balance. 

Currencies are traded in dollar amounts called “ LOTS”

In Forex trading, with most Brokers, you have the choice between 2 different lot sizes.

Standard Lots or Mini Lots.

One Standard lot is equal to $100,000 in currency. The margin requirements, using a 400:1 Leverage, would be US$ 250, in other word you control $100,000 worth of currency for only 250 US dollars. 

You mean, depositing $250 with a broker, I could trade 100,000$ worth of currency ???

NO, be aware, that your account size has to be more than the required margin of US 250. For example, if you place an order to buy 1 Standard lot ( @100,000) of USD/JPY and USD/JPY is quoted as 112.10/112.13, you buy USD/JPY at 112.13.

Your account balance would be $220, because you paid 3 pips or $ 30 for this trade. 

If you would close this trade immediately, you have to sell it at 112.10 (the bid price) , for a loss of $ 30.

In fact you could not get executed on this trade, as the brokers trading platform would reject your order, for the reason of having insufficient funds in your account).

So, your account balance has to be minimum $280. $250 for margin and $30 for the trade.

BUT....IF, after you have initiated the trade to buy USD/JPY at 112.13, and the USD/JPY falls the next second 1 pip ( approx. $8), your position would be closed automatically, because of margin deficit.

I will explain later about having an adequate account size to trade the Forex Market.

Currencies are always traded in pairs in the FOREX. The pairs have a unique notation that expresses what currencies are being traded.

The symbol for a currency pair will always be in the form ABC/DEF. ABC/DEF is not a real currency pair, it is an example of a symbol for a currency pair. In this example ABC is the symbol for one countries currency and DEF is the symbol for another countries currency.

Some of the most common symbols used in Forex are:

USD - The US Dollar 

EUR - The currency of the European Union "EURO"

GBP - The British Pound or cable

JPY - The Japanese Yen

CHF - The Swiss Franc

AUD - The Australian Dollar

CAD - The Canadian Dollar 

There are symbols for other currencies as well, but these are the most commonly traded ones.

A currency can never be traded by itself. So you can not ever trade the USD by itself. You always need to BUY one currency and SELL another currency to make a trade possible. 

Some of the most traded currency pairs are:

EUR/USD Euro against US Dollar 

USD/JPY US Dollar against Japanese Yen 

GBP/USD British Pound against US Dollar 

USD/CAD US Dollar against Canadian Dollar 

AUD/USD Australian Dollar against US Dollar 

USD/CHF US Dollar against Swiss Franc 

EUR/JPY Euro against Japanese Yen 

The currency left of the / is called the base currency. 

The currency right of the / is called the counter currency.

When you place an order to buy the EUR/USD, for instance, you are actually buying the EUR and selling the USD. 

If you were to sell the pair, you would be selling the EUR and buying the USD. So if you buy or sell a currency PAIR, you are buying/selling the base currency. 

The best way to remember is, by just thinking of the entire currency pair as one item. 

If you buy it...you buy the first currency and sell the second currency. If you sell it...you sell the first currency and buy the second currency. 

That means you would to be able to short-sell with no restrictions so you could make money when the market drops as well as when it rises.

The problem with traditional stock market or commodity trading is that the market has to go up for you to make money. With FOREX trading you can make money in all directions.

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